Mural, done. Woot! Conservative Minority It Shall Be
The Polls
The various polls are showing the Liberals with a 1% – 15% lead over the Conservatives with the NDP sitting around 17% of the popular vote and the Bloc hovering 12%. What do all the polls tell you? Nothing.
Here’s Why
The real campaigning hasn’t even begun. Why waste media dollars now, during the most expensive time of the year, when you can get cheaper rates in the time just before the election. Obviously, all of the parties will still be keeping themselves in the public eye, but as we get closer to the holidays it is my belief that the political advertising and headlines will diminish considerably until after Christmas and Boxing “Week”. After that, it’s going to be “on like Donkey Kong” in terms of wasting advertising budgets on political cock-fighting.
Thoughts on the Polls
- Half of the polls use undecided voters. In other words, they are counting votes in terms of most likely, but not neccessarily certain votes. Some polls also redistribute the undecided votes on a weighted scale.
- There is a large variance in most of the recent polls, showing anywhere from a 1% to a 15% difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives after distribution. Which leads me to beleive that they are a) entirely inaccurate or b) the population is changing their vote on a daily basis.
- The methods used for stratification of the sample taken is not always representative of the situation in that geographical location. For example, 30% of the nation votes for one Political Party but that 30% could only represent “one side of the street” in that neighbourhood. It’s a random sample, remember?
Why it’s Going to Be a Conservative Minority:
Let’s be realistic about advertising in general. If it didn’t work, businesses wouldn’t spend millions of their profits to continue advertising. It works, face it.
Who Has the Biggest Ad-Budget?
To answer this question, we can look to the contributions made to the party. This information is available from the Elections Canada Website
| Political party | BQ | CPC | Green | Liberal | NDP |
| Return type | Quarterly | Quarterly | Quarterly | Quarterly | Quarterly |
| End period | Sep. 2005 | Sep. 2005 | Sep. 2005 | Sep. 2005 | Sep. 2005 |
| Contributions ($) | 96,221.91 | 3,247,131.00 | 47,418.79 | 1,062,332.13 | 720,652.49 |
| Contributors | 1,794 | 32,714 | 928 | 6,943 | 10,698 |
| Associations ($) | 955.00 | 0.00 | 978.33 | 117,142.11 | 953.21 |
| Candidates ($) | 1,605.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10,000.00 | 0.00 |
| Grand total ($) | 98,781.91 | 3,247,131.00 | 48,397.12 | 1,189,474.24 | 721,605.70 |
Are you noticing a slight difference there? Liberals $1.2 Million, Conservatives $3.2 Million. That’s a lot of money to be able to be spending on ads. The conservatives can create an onslaught of advertising that the Liberals will not be able to compete with.
When your competitor comes out with an advertisement, you had better come out with one too. Otherwise, you’ll be left in the dust. The Liberals will be forced to rely on free types of media to deliver their message whereas the Conservatives will be spoon-feeding their message to the public as they flick channels.
From a strategic perspective, the Liberals should hold on to what little money they have. It makes more sense for them to concentrate on getting the media spotlight right now, so they can fight back with advertising in the new year. The liberals have a history of making last minute comebacks with clever advertising. If they want to survive they’ll have to do it again.
Voter Sentiment
No Vote
The more people I speak with the more people I realize are not going to vote. Simply because they don’t like or understand the options in front of them.
- Stephen Harper creeps them out
- The Liberal Adscam fiasco has pushed them away
- They don’t understand the NDP
- A winter election means people are going to be trying to stay nice and warm in their houses watching election results when they should be voting themselves
To Vote
From a personality perspective, conservative constituents are more likely to vote:
- They are angry with the liberals and want change
- They are big business
- They are staunch conservatives
A good way to put this in perspective is to compare the number of contributors.
I don’t know how young you are Brandon, but by your picture you look under thirty. That puts you with a special group, the ones that have never seen any federal government but the Liberals. Go here for details:
Canada’s Last Chance
Trust your analysis. Go with the flow.
I’m 64 and have seen a lot of governments, federal and provincial, including NDP. So let me tell you: with the exception of the NDP, there’s not much difference between to LPC and the CPC style governments. Country’s still here.
I do remember Ontario ending up $11 billion more in debt than it started under Bod Rae’s regime NDP. Jack’s no difference – he loves Other People’s Money.
I like what I see in Harper. It’s been a long time since we had a man of integrity and principle as PM in Ottawa. I can’t think of a better person whose stewardship I trust. And that’s saying a lot.
So drop the “scary” line, and let’s see Canada move forward.
Regards, Erik
Sue Kelland-Dyer has made some very specific and thought provoking predictions and explanations about the upcoming election on VOCM open line.
She predicts a Conservative minorty with its power base from the West and East and the Liberals taking the majority of their seats out of Ontarios 106 seat rich area. With Quebec a non issue thus ruling out their 75 seats out of a total of 308.
Conservatives = Country building
Liberals =Ontario Empire building
I too voted NDP last time but will vote to oust the Liberals this time unless the polls show that I can vote for the NDP and still oust the Liberals.
Untill such a time as the NDP can implement Proportional representation where every vote counts I will be forced to vote extremist to protect the country from Mr Dithers.
Shes a goner if something isn’t done IMHO to rectify the democratic deficit between the provinces and colonies.
IE: Triple E senate. Equal, Effective, and elected.
Or Proportional Representation to stop the Extremist political institutions in favor of moderalted Pro Rep where every vote counts!
I think there is a huge difference. The two parties are diametrically opposed in terms of ideology and fiscal policy.
The Conservative Party of Canada is for small government and lower taxes, with a larger hint of “fend for yourself”, meaning, privatized health care and reducing public expenditures.
Whereas, the Liberal Party of Canada is for larger government and higher taxes, with a larger hint of “we’ll provide for you”, meaning, public health care and increasing public expenditures.
Other, pressing differences, such as being “socially” conservative, or “socially” liberal create a large variance in terms of social policy between the two parties. Especially, for example, on issues such as: abortion, same-sex marriage, and The Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
The only place you can go in Canada where conservatives don’t act like conservatives(fiscally speaking) is in Alberta. That’s only because money flows like water from the Oil Sands. That, and generally speaking the population is socially conservative(but definately not fiscally conservative!).
It has been an interesting outcome. Unfortunately, Stephen has not taken the highroad when he had the chance to do so. By highjacking the riding of Vancouver Kingsway and appointing a senator, he has broken every promise he made for 2 years. Further he has forgotten the region, I mean province of Prince Edward Island.
I have been voting for 60? years. My blessed God what a misconception.
I have seen candidates come out of incarceration (jail), organize 14 year old kids, bus them to a pre arranged poling station that moved (manipulated) for personal convenience of a candidate. The jailbird gets the nomination, then in an election people vote for the leader and-or the party. The jailbird gets in the house of assembly.
I have seen known conservative supporters rally behind a liberal candidate, nominate the known ex-con. On election day voter must choose between the ex-con and a clean, oh well.
I have seen a lot of damage done to NL political election process. Now we have the greatest scandal of all times in our House of Assembly. Not hard to understand. Even this recent scandal is on the road to “cover up”. I would like to see NL politics cleaned up while my age group are here to tell our unbelievable story.