The Conservatives have offered to reduce GST by 2% from 7%. Many believe that this will create a benefit for low income families – I disagree, continue reading for why.

“Jack Layton has derided the Conservatives promise to cut the GST by a single percentage, but the fact remains that this tax cut benefits the working poor more than it benefits the rich., and you may have noticed that Jack hasn’t been deriding the Conservatives GST cut promise all that loudly.” From – James Bow

First, GST is a regressive tax¹. Meaning, it does not increase or decrease with the amount of income that one earns. You pay more GST as you purchase or procure more goods and services that have GST applied to them. However, one must realize that it is not applied to items or services that are considered to be a necessity. Realistically, the bulk of low-income families purchases are GST free items like mortgage payments, rent, and groceries.

Second, GST makes up approximately 15% of budgetary revenues. Last year, the government raked in $29.7 Billion in GST. cutting GST by 2% seems like nothing to a specific individual but 2% is 30% of total GST tax revenue. The reality of that $100-$400 of savings to low income families will be meaningless when government expenditures are cut and services are reduced. Reduce the $29.7 by 30% and compare with our current budget surplus and tell me again if you think it’s a great idea.

Third, there are two groups that stand to receive a substantial benefit from GST. Business, and rich individuals that purchase the bulk of items that are taxed with GST.

Fourth, reducing taxes when we are in a growth stage is generally a bad idea. Expect some negative feedback from the Bank of Canada as they attempt to control inflation, they raised the interest rate by 25 basis points already. Do you think that increasing inflation (due to lower taxes), increased interest(due to rising inflation) rates will help low income families get loans or prosper. I don’t.

So please, think deeper before you proliferate the thought “the fact remains that this tax cut benefits the working poor more than it benefits the rich.”

In recent events Tookie Williams had his sentence carried out. It caused me to reflect on why society and individuals feel they have the right or the authority to sentence a man or woman to death. Upon deeper thought, I began to compare capital punishment with abortion.

What is the difference, I ask myself? Between: judges sentencing someone to death or a woman deciding to have an abortion. Both the criminal and the child are obviously being punished by negative circumstances. The criminal sentenced for committing a crime, a definitively negative circumstance. The unborn child is sentenced for the negative circumstance itself, be it: a child conceived of violence, a child conceived accidentally, or a child conceived into a situation of despair.

Does the question of sentience make it easier for me to accept taking a life? A criminal sentenced to death more than likely is being punished for an act that they committed consciously. Whereas, an unborn child can’t possibly understand the complexity of the situation in which it was condemned. In fact, every effort is made to ensure that the life of the child is taken before the point of sentience, how are we to define, for certain, at what point and at what level of sentience a being can experience before it is no longer ethical to destroy it? In the case of a criminal it seems to be easier. They do something horrible; hence, we reciprocate by doing something horrible to them. This sounds more like vigilante or vengeful action than social justice. Although, I would interject with the strong belief that no person should be allowed to decide if another must die. Therein lies the calamity of my contradiction.

I believe that a woman should have the choice because I somehow ignore the idea that what’s inside her should / would / will become a person. In thinking that a woman should have a choice I don’t separate her from the thought of the child, which, somehow implies ownership. It almost makes it easier to dismiss the rights of something that is human but not yet in its full form. Perhaps, it is a racist thought pattern – to believe that a human that does not match your shape or form has less of an entitlement to life than you do. But then I think of the woman who has to carry a child conceived of violence. How could I expect that woman to carry such a conception to term? Would you be able to tell your daughter to suck it up and carry the child of her predator because you don’t believe in abortion? Even better would you be able to accept the continued existence of the person who caused such hardship on your daughter?

I don’t claim to know the correct answers, but these are the questions and situations that come into my mind when I compare the two ideas. Am I contradicting myself? Yes, I am. No one should have the right to decide if someone else should die. Yet, I still believe a woman should have the choice, even in the realization of this contradiction.

The Polls

The various polls are showing the Liberals with a 1% – 15% lead over the Conservatives with the NDP sitting around 17% of the popular vote and the Bloc hovering 12%. What do all the polls tell you? Nothing.

Here’s Why

The real campaigning hasn’t even begun. Why waste media dollars now, during the most expensive time of the year, when you can get cheaper rates in the time just before the election. Obviously, all of the parties will still be keeping themselves in the public eye, but as we get closer to the holidays it is my belief that the political advertising and headlines will diminish considerably until after Christmas and Boxing “Week”. After that, it’s going to be “on like Donkey Kong” in terms of wasting advertising budgets on political cock-fighting.

Thoughts on the Polls

• Half of the polls use undecided voters. In other words, they are counting votes in terms of most likely, but not neccessarily certain votes. Some polls also redistribute the undecided votes on a weighted scale.
• There is a large variance in most of the recent polls, showing anywhere from a 1% to a 15% difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives after distribution. Which leads me to beleive that they are a) entirely inaccurate or b) the population is changing their vote on a daily basis.
• The methods used for stratification of the sample taken is not always representative of the situation in that geographical location. For example, 30% of the nation votes for one Political Party but that 30% could only represent “one side of the street” in that neighbourhood. It’s a random sample, remember?

Why it’s Going to Be a Conservative Minority:

Let’s be realistic about advertising in general. If it didn’t work, businesses wouldn’t spend millions of their profits to continue advertising. It works, face it.

Who Has the Biggest Ad-Budget?

To answer this question, we can look to the contributions made to the party. This information is available from the Elections Canada Website

Are you noticing a slight difference there? Liberals $1.2 Million, Conservatives $3.2 Million. That’s a lot of money to be able to be spending on ads. The conservatives can create an onslaught of advertising that the Liberals will not be able to compete with.

When your competitor comes out with an advertisement, you had better come out with one too. Otherwise, you’ll be left in the dust. The Liberals will be forced to rely on free types of media to deliver their message whereas the Conservatives will be spoon-feeding their message to the public as they flick channels.

From a strategic perspective, the Liberals should hold on to what little money they have. It makes more sense for them to concentrate on getting the media spotlight right now, so they can fight back with advertising in the new year. The liberals have a history of making last minute comebacks with clever advertising. If they want to survive they’ll have to do it again.

Voter Sentiment

No Vote

The more people I speak with the more people I realize are not going to vote. Simply because they don’t like or understand the options in front of them.

• Stephen Harper creeps them out
• The Liberal Adscam fiasco has pushed them away
• They don’t understand the NDP
• A winter election means people are going to be trying to stay nice and warm in their houses watching election results when they should be voting themselves

To Vote

From a personality perspective, conservative constituents are more likely to vote:

• They are angry with the liberals and want change
• They are big business
• They are staunch conservatives

A good way to put this in perspective is to compare the number of contributors.